How to calculate how much to prep each day

Prep too little and you run out of salsa halfway through the rush and have to say "we're out". Prep too much and you throw away food you already paid for at close. The difference between the two is calculating how much to prep from what you actually sell, not "the usual". Here's how, step by step.

Why it matters

• Less waste: what's left at close and can't be saved is money thrown away.
• Fewer 86'd items: every "we're out" is a lost sale and an annoyed customer.
• Better use of time: your team preps what's needed, not extra.

Step 1. Forecast how much you'll sell

The simplest, fairly reliable way: the average for the same day of the week over the last 4 to 6 weeks. A Tuesday isn't like a Saturday, so compare Tuesdays with Tuesdays.

Then adjust for what you know is coming:

• Trend: whether you sold more (or less) the last two weeks than before.
• Reservations or large orders already confirmed.
• Events: a game, something happening nearby, payday, a holiday.
• Weather: rain or heat change what sells.

Step 2. Turn dishes into prep items

You don't prep "tacos", you prep salsa, marinated meat, rice and beans. For each prep item, multiply how many of each dish you expect to sell by how much of that item it uses, and add it up.

You need = Σ (Expected dishes × Amount per dish)

For this you need recipes with exact quantities. If you don't have them, start with how to calculate recipe cost: the first step is exactly to standardize them.

Step 3. Add a cushion and keep a minimum

• Cushion: about 10% extra so a busy afternoon doesn't leave you empty.
• Minimum: what should always be on hand even if the forecast is low, like one pot of beans.

Step 4. Subtract what's left in good condition

If yesterday's salsa is still within its shelf life, it counts for today. Only subtract what's properly stored, labeled and not expired.

Step 5. Round to your batches

If salsa is made in half-gallon pots, you won't make 1.3 pots. Round up to full batches.

Example: salsa verde for a Tuesday

• You need 76.5 + 120 = 196.5 oz
• With a 10% cushion 196.5 × 1.10 = 216.2 oz
• Minus yesterday's leftovers 216.2 − 40 = 176.2 oz
• In half-gallon pots (64 oz) 176.2 ÷ 64 = 2.75 → 3 pots (192 oz)

If there's a game that Tuesday and you expect 20% more, the forecast goes up before the cushion, and the math changes with it.

Items prepped a day ahead

Marinated meats, soaked beans or stocks that rest are prepped today for tomorrow. For those, do the math with tomorrow's forecast, not today's, and keep them in their own section of your list so they don't get forgotten.

At close: count leftovers and adjust

• Count what's left of each prep item.
• Save it if it's still good (labeled with date and expiration) or toss it and log it with its cost.
• Review weekly: if something is almost always left over, lower its amount; if it runs out often, raise its minimum.

With a few weeks of data your forecast gets more and more accurate. If you want to cut what gets thrown out, the guide on how to reduce food waste can help too.

Kitchfly's prep list

Doing all this by hand every morning takes time. On the Pro plan, Kitchfly builds the day's prep list for you:

• It forecasts from your real sales: the same-weekday average over the last 6 weeks, plus the recent trend, your reservations and any adjustment you set for that day (a game, rain).
• It breaks each dish down through its recipe to the prep items, adds the cushion, respects the minimum, subtracts what was saved from yesterday and rounds to your batches.
• It separates what's prepped a day ahead, calculated with tomorrow's forecast.
• Each cook sees their station on the kitchen display, with the recipe scaled to today's amount, and prints a label with date and expiration when done.
• It warns you if you're short on ingredients for what needs to be prepped, before you start.
• At close you count what's left: what you save counts for tomorrow and what you toss is logged with its cost.
• It learns from what happens: it compares what was prepped with what was used and suggests specific changes, like lowering something that's always left over by 15%.

Frequently asked questions